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Post by MungO on Dec 29, 2023 8:03:44 GMT
Where will we finish. Ultimately we don't know. We could have a brilliant January Window and be flying, or we could get loads of injuries in February and be relegated. Using some stats we can break it down two ways.. Current Points Per Game. We currently have 28 points after 23 games. That equates to 56 points after 46 games and a historical finish of 15/16th place.
Or we can look at my indexing, break down the league into 6 sections (top 8 home, middle 8 home, bottom 8 home, top 8 away, middle 8 away, bottom 8 away) and try to be more analytical. Expectations of survival - Draw your top 8 home games, mixture of wins / draws in your middle 8 home games, win your bottom 8 home games. Top 8 and Middle 8 away games are a free hit and to pick anything up is a bonus. Try to at least draw your bottom 8 away games. Top 8 home - 1.00 Point Per Game - 8 points expected (currently 0.20ppg - failing) Top 8 Away - 0.00 Points Per Game - 0 points expected - (currently 0.67ppg - better than expected) Middle 8 home - 2.00 Points Per Game - 16 points expected - (currently 1.75ppg - failing) Middle 8 away - 0.00 Points Per Game - 0 points expected - (0.50ppg - better than expected) Bottom 8 home - 3.00 Points Per Game - 24 points expected - (currently 3.00ppg - on target) Bottom 8 away - 1.00 Points Per Game - 8 points expected - (currently - 2.00ppg - better than expected) If we carry on like the above with the indexing, we'll finish with 63 points and an 11th/12th place finish.
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Post by MungO on Dec 29, 2023 8:19:27 GMT
Top 8 - Area of concern or just about where we are?
Looking at the table it's fair to say we've had no joy against the top 8 at all. We drew away at Blackpool and Peterborough early on when i think they were transitioning back into this league / new styels. Glad we played them away early on and got them out the way with.
I thought Barnsley were by far the best team i've seen this season and a draw against them to me was a good result.
Apart from the Stevenage anomaly of being in the top 8, if you swapped them out with Charlton you could argue the 'bigger' teams are in all the right spots. I make Martin Ling and the board right on that front.
If the truth be told we are no way good enough in terms of players, or squad depth to realistically compete again the top 8 as things stand. Let us continue to try and nick a few points here and there against them and hope for the best. But really, when we play them, i don't expect much. The top 8 is really a league within this league.
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Post by watfordo on Dec 29, 2023 8:24:21 GMT
Thanks for this. Its amazing work. Its one of those sets of data that weirdly backs up the less than scientific gut feeling I have!
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Post by MungO on Dec 29, 2023 8:25:26 GMT
Middle 8 - Holding our own:
We've won a few homes and had a few creditable draws in this section. If we're to progress we need to keep improving and picking up points against these 7 other teams. Wins against Wycombe and Cambridge would be ideal in the next few days.
Wycombe away was just an odd type of performance / result and shows that anything can happen.
I've not seen anything in this section that should have us worried, i think with a fit Graham, a fully-firing Agyei, and a bit more in attack (though Forde has hit some form), we have enough to compete here.
The away games are a bit of a free-hit but a nice away win at Lincoln or Wigan would boost us with confidence.
We're holding our own. This is where we currently belong as a team.
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Post by MungO on Dec 29, 2023 8:30:39 GMT
Bottom 8 - Doing what we need to do
Business as usual against the bottom 8. Winning our homes, mainly winning away.
To survive there is an expectation to carry on this form. With some better players returning from injury i don't expect this to change.
Fleetwood away was disappointing. We all felt that one.
Burton was the one where Graham got injured and it all went a bit flat.
There's always an anomaly, but generally we are better than these teams.
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Post by MungO on Dec 29, 2023 8:36:51 GMT
So there you have it. My halfway report.
In my opinion we're a squad that has 50% League One capable players with the other 50% really trying hard to step up and need our full support.
I feel we could finish anywhere between 10th to 18th and will go with a 16th place finish. I just hope we don't get any further injuries and if we do recruit in January it really works out for us and we finish the season with a bit of momentum.
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Post by watfordo on Dec 29, 2023 8:44:27 GMT
I also think we need to be so careful in recruiting players in Jan. I think we have enough already to keep us up but the summer coming will potentially see a lot of change. As an example, El Miz will be gone and he will take some replacing. We may need to wait so we can decide what we need. Next season could be even tougher without the momentum of being the previous seasons champions. Ling has an awful lot of work to do.
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Post by MungO on Dec 29, 2023 8:46:46 GMT
There was a thread on here the other day about 'How do we compete'
I haven't read it but assuming it was along the lines of how do we break into the top 8 / compete with the bigger teams.
4 Teams in this division in my opinion just shouldn't be here and if run correctly should be in the Championship: Pompey, Derby, Bolton, Charlton. They can afford to be wasteful in this division. They should have no business in this division.
The other 3 teams: Peterborough, Barnsley, Blackpool regularly flit between the Championship and League One. They seem to be run well and we could look to them as to what they regularly achieve.
That leaves Oxford. They are the ones i think we could catch. The outlier. Similar in size. Though it has taken them 4 years to get to the top 8 regularly.
Over the next 2 or 3 seasons if we could reach the top 8 regularly i would be so impressed. Really proud.
The board have been great over the last 6 years. Richie is working his magic but he isn't a magician, give him the players and he'll make it happen. The players are performing above the levels i think they should be, the crowds are good, the signings improve each time, off-field i believe Devlin if he says things are going well.
This is a great time to be an O's fan.
Up the O's.
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Post by lukeryan on Dec 29, 2023 9:49:59 GMT
Fantastic work Mungo well done
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Post by Thor on Dec 29, 2023 11:28:38 GMT
We are not that far away from a top 3 team, sounds mad right?
Football wise we are as good as anyone on their or our day. Where they are a top 3 team is down to consistency and we are just not there yet. The football can hold its own at that level, we just need more consistent performers like mungo has shown elsewhere to get there.
It can be frustrating, but Cambridge at home showed what we can do when it all comes together. A tinker here and there in this window will help us evolve a little more and a harder window in the summer will move us a big step towards the play offs.
We really are not that far away now, yet it really does seem so far away at the same time. The journey continues!
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Post by MungO on Dec 30, 2023 8:49:34 GMT
So using my methodology a point last night isn't the end of the world.
But I would have said it was one we should have been winning. Definitely 2 points dropped in my opinion.
Wycombe offered absolutely nothing. Just two banks of 5 players set up to not lose.
And we needed to be more canny to open them up.
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