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Post by dohnut on Feb 28, 2024 21:15:04 GMT
You make an interesting point about teams who don’t make it in the playoffs usually fail next season. Not all get taken over as we were. I will have a look, interesting project. Of course failure needs quantification. But accepting that could be the case, the risk for us would be losing Richie and that without doubt would be a blow. Does that risk increase if we fail in the playoffs? Maybe. His stock will be higher and others would come knocking. Eventually an offer he cannot refuse will come along. And it will. Proven in league 2, proven in league 1 with a newly promoted team. Championship clubs maybe will take a punt. Accepting all that I be delighted to have a Wembley trip and allow the Board to deal with the other stuff. I think it’s worth having a shot imo for the experience for supporters, players and the revenue for the owners. This to make up for the poor performance against Chesterfield in the cup to not even get a draw. If the manager is serious in thinking he can motivate the players to achieve this, as it was unthinkable at Christmas to be in the position now. What I would suggest tongue in cheek is to start practising penalties now in case the unthinkable happens and we reach the playoffs.  Still get nightmares about that game and our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. At half time I went to the souvenir shop and stocked up. The bag remains unopened in my garage as a reminder never to count my chickens. I definitely should have known better than to Jonah that game. Painful. But would love a Wembley trip this season, even if it ended up in defeat. The financial value alone would help kick start next season very nicely. |
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Post by Nick312 on Feb 28, 2024 22:04:58 GMT
Would it be reasonable, and I am not being sarcastic here, to think it possible that we might be able to achieve automatic promotion? Looking at analysis by various posters above, highlighting form and so on, and thinking about our promotion, are we supporters not ignoring the elephant in the room?
Have I had a bottled beer too many?
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Post by Nick312 on Feb 28, 2024 22:05:37 GMT
I meant "momentum", not "promotion".
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2024 22:48:18 GMT
Would it be reasonable, and I am not being sarcastic here, to think it possible that we might be able to achieve automatic promotion? Looking at analysis by various posters above, highlighting form and so on, and thinking about our promotion, are we supporters not ignoring the elephant in the room? Have I had a bottled beer too many? 😂 The thought had crossed my mind but it seems a bit of a stretch. Portsmouth and Barnsley are both in good form. The former will almost certainly win the league. I'd expect Barnsley to overtake Derby and Bolton, especially with games in hand. Derby's form is less good but they're still very much in the running. As previously mentioned, Bolton seem to be bottling it, but it would still be a big ask to make up the 12 pts they have on us. It would seem almost impossible to make up 12 pts on them, Derby, and Barnsley. That being said, there are still quite a lot of games to play between all the teams above us (14 I think). Derby get off pretty lightly with just two of the teams still to play, but Bolton still have to play all of them, and all but Stevenage (unfortunately) still have to play Portsmouth. That's a lot of points above us that will be dropped, so you never know 🥸 |
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Post by Nick312 on Feb 28, 2024 23:18:31 GMT
Would it be reasonable, and I am not being sarcastic here, to think it possible that we might be able to achieve automatic promotion? Looking at analysis by various posters above, highlighting form and so on, and thinking about our promotion, are we supporters not ignoring the elephant in the room? Have I had a bottled beer too many? 😂 The thought had crossed my mind but it seems a bit of a stretch. Portsmouth and Barnsley are both in good form. The former will almost certainly win the league. I'd expect Barnsley to overtake Derby and Bolton, especially with games in hand. Derby's form is less good but they're still very much in the running. As previously mentioned, Bolton seem to be bottling it, but it would still be a big ask to make up the 12 pts they have on us. It would seem almost impossible to make up 12 pts on them, Derby, and Barnsley. That being said, there are still quite a lot of games to play between all the teams above us (14 I think). Derby get off pretty lightly with just two of the teams still to play, but Bolton still have to play all of them, and all but Stevenage (unfortunately) still have to play Portsmouth. That's a lot of points above us that will be dropped, so you never know 🥸 |
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Post by Nick312 on Feb 28, 2024 23:19:40 GMT
We're beginning to sound like kbola.
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Post by kbola on Feb 29, 2024 6:04:10 GMT
Keep the faith (KTF)
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Post by blip the thrOttle on Feb 29, 2024 6:42:53 GMT
I suspect there's some "what ifs" going on inside the camp concerning the Burton result. A great recovery against Oxford which put the playoffs back on the radar, but still a massive hill to climb re. Stevenage. I wonder if we can catch Bolton, Oxford or Peterborough? They seem to be bottling it a bit. The Stevenage away game is massive anyhow for us, but only if we get the points against the "poorer" teams. If the playoffs are to be achieved then we have to win virtually all of our remaining games. Derby away and Stevenage away might be excusable as draws. An interesting and fairly easy project for someone to do would be to look into the games we've played against the "better" teams and compare them with the games played against the "worse". Then analyse the games coming up on a "better" and "worse" scale to predict where we might end up. It seems to me that we have more games against "worse" teams coming up and that might be a problem. I'm in the camp of those who want to be in the playoffs because I think we'd win them. Momentum is going our way. And I think that momentum will continue into the Championship. Some have made the point that we're missing star players. I don't think so.   |
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Post by blip the thrOttle on Feb 29, 2024 7:08:29 GMT
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Post by Thor on Feb 29, 2024 7:55:28 GMT
I've missed those stats! Thanks for posting!
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Post by Nick312 on Feb 29, 2024 9:30:51 GMT
Blimey, this thread is becoming similar to a university library. Thank you for the statistics.
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Post by billericayo on Feb 29, 2024 10:16:09 GMT
Putting the numbers aside, after the Blackpool game, it hit me, that we are in danger of gate-crashing a playoff spot. Then I thought we would get slaughtered in the Championship. However, the reward of finance in the play-off alone is worth it, Going up is the result of 10 years of effort, Nigel and Kent deserve this so much. The two of them have worked miracles and I'm sure they and Ritchie will plot a path for success. A new stadium will result. If Wycombe Wanderers can make a profit in the Championship then I'm sure Nigel and Kent can. On the 9th of December Wycombe was 15th in the League, and we were 16th, Charlton was 10th. A lot of water has gone under the bridge, Charlton has dropped like a stone and we are on a charge to join the big boys, 41 years of hurt could be about to end.
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Post by redshank on Feb 29, 2024 11:59:59 GMT
We are in a very cosy position,much dreamed of in August to October.Our progress has been well managed even with many setbacks.I am convinced we are a very very good league 1 team with the possibility of the play offs.If we do not achieve that goal then it will still have been a great season of a solid base to chase promotion from kick off next season.
We are a team to be feared and this division is waking up to this.What we have achieved since the darkest time in our clubs history(the day of the bucket notwithstanding)has been quite staggering.We thank all concerned for the hard work put in and the undying faith of the fans to help it along.Unusual for us,but we can now walk with a bit of a swagger.We wont because we are Leyton Orient fans and we do know football and its many masters.
I was reading in the DT online this morning about the fall of Stoke City from the Premier League days.If they fall into our division they will be a big club in League 1 and I am sure it will help them on the way back up.Some unpleasant comments were posted,but I always Liked Stoke City and how they stayed in the top league for a long time.
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Post by dohnut on Feb 29, 2024 14:19:18 GMT
Would it be reasonable, and I am not being sarcastic here, to think it possible that we might be able to achieve automatic promotion? Looking at analysis by various posters above, highlighting form and so on, and thinking about our promotion, are we supporters not ignoring the elephant in the room? Have I had a bottled beer too many? The automatic boat had sailed in my opinion, Playoffs would be a massive achievement. Failing that we have had a really great season and importantly the prospect of a better one to look forward to. That we are even talking about playoffs is remarkable. |
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Post by buffalobill on Feb 29, 2024 14:32:39 GMT
So I've taken the average points per game for the last 6 home and 6 away matches for the 8 clubs and assumed this form continues until the end of the season.
Home Pts won Away Pts won Season ending points Place
Portsmouth 2.16 13 1.83 9 95 1st
Derby 1.66 10 1.66 8 84 4th
Bolton 2.33 14 1.16 7 87 3rd
Barnsley 2.16 13 2.0 14 90 2nd
Peterborough 1.33 11 1.66 8 78 5th
Stevenage 2.00 12 1.16 7 78 5th
Oxford Utd 1.00 5 1.33 8 70 8th or worse
Leyton Orient 2.16 13 2.16 11 78 5th
So on current form, there will be three teams tied for the last two play off places, which means goal difference.
This season could go down to the wire.
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Post by blip the thrOttle on Feb 29, 2024 15:37:52 GMT
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Post by SW O on Feb 29, 2024 15:47:49 GMT
It seems a long time since nearly every other post stated that we weren't up to League 1 football. Haven't seen that repeated recently!
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Post by redshank on Feb 29, 2024 16:38:08 GMT
Those wilderness days of August -October,caused many a fluttering heart.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 29, 2024 19:08:54 GMT
Those wilderness days of August -October,caused many a fluttering heart. That's a good point and worth bearing in mind just how bad our start to the season was and how that's affected our position. Yeah, we've been in great form recently, but we've actually been in playoff form for quite a while. It took us 4 games to gain a single point. Prior to that we'd already shipped 8 goals, more than anyone else in the league. After 10 games we were 18th with 1.1 ppg. From Matchday 11 onwards, we've managed 1.72 ppg. Sure, we're top over the last 10 games, but in all but the first 10 games, we're 5th. Injuries and a tiring squad could count against us of course, so let's temper our expectations. But let's not just chalk this up to momentum either. We're legitimately a very good team and improving all the time. Let's just hope we can keep at least one player in every position fit through March🤞 |
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