Do we really need to sign a striker to get promoted?

I started writing this in the Posh Fred in response to the perennial chat about needing a new striker. I typed so much I figured it might as well be its own thread.

TL;DR: sort of, but we can also improve massively without breaking our wage structure.

Attack

We have the 4th worst xG vs actual goals scored in the league (-0.25 per 90). If we scored equal to our xG, that would be another 10 goals so far.

That would mean a better GF than Stevenage and Northampton, but no other teams in the top half. It would still be on par with a typical midtable finish compared with recent League 1 seasons.

We're 9th in the xG table so I suspect a better striker than Ruel would buy us a rung or two up the ladder. But unless we improve in other areas too, we'd really need a 25+ goal a season striker to get promoted. That means someone who can create chances for themselves and others as well as consistently putting them away, because we're not creating enough either.

We all know we can't afford that player. Especially since this is Orient so they'll just get injured immediately 🤷

But Agyei can be close to being that player if we can keep him fit. We've seen what he can do and he massively outscored his xG in league 2. Ruel is a good backup to have and is improving year on year. He's better off the bench anyway.

As for chances, Graham can provide them, again, if we can keep him fit. But let's not forget that we've also got a lot of exciting young players who will only get better. (If we can keep them fit 😅)

We need to do whatever it takes to have Galbraith playing further up the pitch, especially if Sanders can't play week in week out. A new full back could be a better investment than a new striker. In fact, if I was Richie, I'd play Sweeney in all remaining games this season and see if he can develop some consistency. Could save us a few quid.


Defence

Interestingly we were also 9th in xG last season too. The big differences being a) we were consistently scoring 0.01 xG bangers, and b) Lawrence Vigouroux.

Our xGA vs actual goals conceded (-0.37 per 90) was far and away the best in the league. This season it is not. At first glance, -0.02 per 90 suggests Brynn is doing OK for a young lad, but of the teams above us, only Peterborough and Oxford have worse - both teams that outperform their xG.

We're actually 12th in xGA vs AGC, which isn't good enough. Brynn isn't good enough.

Am I still in the minority here? The stats suggest he's an average shot-stopper and he doesn't appear to be especially good at anything else.

I'd be very disappointed if we extended his loan. We need to invest in a good keeper. Fortunately, that's a much cheaper position to fill than a good striker.


Experience

In short, we need more of it. We've got some good young players but we've lacked maturity at times this season, with Prats unable to play a full 90. On top of all the stupid yellows, game management is also poor compared to last season. 23% of our goals conceded have come just before or just after half time, and 17% have come at the death.

We need more leadership on the pitch. When Prats isn't playing, it's all left to Beckles. Of our other senior players (late 20s and above), none really strike me as leaders: Moncs, James, Hunt, Pigott, Agyei. Maybe Graham could be, but not when he's crocked.


Conclusion

Even if we can technically afford a top striker, it feels a bit like putting all of our eggs in one basket. I think the squad can be better improved with both a good keeper and (depending on Richie's faith in Sweeney) full back. If those players have leadership qualities too, perfect. We can probably get both for the price of a top striker (not that I'd turn one down of course 😁).

Oh, and it barely needs mentioning, but we've gotta hold onto Idris too. Would anyone let him go in order to fund a new striker? That makes 3 areas of the pitch where I think money can be better spent than a number 9.